A year after offensive, rebels control most of Myanmar’s Rakhine state

One year after renewed fighting in Myanmar’s western Rakhine state, the rebel Arakan Army controls some 80 percent of the state while the military junta’s airstrikes and its blockade of trade routes have left residents worried about their safety and food shortages.

The ethnic Arakan Army, or AA, began its offensive on Nov. 13, 2023, and has since captured 10 out of the state’s 17 townships, as well as one township in neighboring Chin state.

The group is battling for self-determination for the mostly Buddhist Rakhine people. It would be the first Myanmar rebel group to take over a state if it seizes – as it has vowed to do – all territory under military control in Rakhine state.

Myanmar’s military, which took control of the country in a 2021 coup, has been battling various rebel armies and militias across the country, and has faced some of its biggest setbacks in Rakhine.

The AA’s battlefield successes over the last year has been unprecedented since the fall of the Arakan Kingdom to the Burmese in 1784, according to Pe Than, a former member of parliament from Rakhine state.

“Our Arakan people lost our sovereignty about 240 years ago,” he told Radio Free Asia. “Throughout this period, the successive generations in Rakhine have engaged in revolutionary efforts, yet we did not achieve victory.

“Now, during the era of the AA, we have found success,” he said. “It is believed that the national dignity of the Rakhine people can be restored along with that of the AA, as it has been a great achievement.”

The AA has repeatedly vowed to capture Sittwe, the state capital and one of the last important military holdings in Rakhine. Last month, AA fighters advanced on the junta’s Western Command headquarters in Ann township, about 120 km (75 miles) southwest of Sittwe.

Additionally, there have been heated battles for control of Maungdaw township near the Bangladesh border since July.

Junta air attacks

In the townships where it has won control, the AA and its political wing, the United League of Arakan, have been operating civilian administration, judicial and development sectors, AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha said during an online news conference on June 8.

“We will diligently follow our roadmap to build a society prevailed with justice, peace and human dignity for the Arakan people,” he said. “We are also committed to establishing a future that guarantees equality and rights for all communities residing in Arakan state.”

But the threat of junta airstrikes remains a significant concern for locals, and many towns and homes have yet to be rebuilt because of financial constraints and difficulties obtaining supplies, he said.

Additionally, the fighting has severely hindered children’s ability to get an education, he said. The junta had already closed many of Rakhine state’s schools, and in some areas children aren’t allowed to walk to school that remain open because of the threat of air strikes, which often target civilian buildings.

“Parents are hiring private teachers for their children,” Khaing Thu Kha said. “It has been a form of self-reliant education.”

Junta air attacks and artillery targeted at Rakhine state’s civilian populations have left 486 people dead and 1,043 injured over the last year, according to the records of the AA and the statements from residents.

“Over the past year, the military junta has carried out excessive airstrikes, destroying religious buildings, hospitals, clinics, residential areas, villages and refugee camps,” said Wai Hin Aung, a volunteer helping war displaced persons in Rakhine.

Rakhine civil society organizations have estimated that more than 600,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to the fierce fighting between the junta and the AA.

RFA was unable to reach junta spokesperson Major Gen. Zaw Min Tun on Wednesday to ask about the current situation in Rakhine state.

Refugees eye return

Across the border in Bangladesh, where some 1 million stateless Rohingya refugees live in tightly packed border camps – including more than 50,000 who have fled the fighting in Rakhine this year – there is some hope that refugees can return once the AA gains full control of Rakhine.

“The AA has a visionary approach, and I believe their governance would not mirror the harsh policies of the military council,” one refugee who has been living in Bangladesh since 2017 told RFA.

“If the AA succeeds in capturing Maungdaw and gains international recognition, I believe they would engage in dialogue with the Rohingya,” he said.

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Another refugee who identified himself as Kairo thought that international recognition of the AA as a legitimate government was unlikely.

“I believe our chance of returning to Rakhine state will be very slim if the AA takes control now,” Kairo said. “I don’t think UNHCR will hand us over to an unrecognized organization,” referring to the U.N refugee agency.

“Even if they gain control of 17 townships, it could take at least two to three years for them to achieve international recognition.”

Translated by Aung Naing and Kalyar Lwin. Edited by Matt Reed and Malcolm Foster.