E Shinde, Ajit Pawar In Focus As Breakaway Leaders Upstage Mentors

Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, and the NCP offshoot led by Ajit Pawar, have apparently flipped a chunk of seats - over 70 - from their parent parties to the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the Maharashtra election.

Nov 23, 2024 - 04:00
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E Shinde, Ajit Pawar In Focus As Breakaway Leaders Upstage Mentors

Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, and the NCP offshoot led by Ajit Pawar, have apparently flipped a chunk of seats - over 70 - from their parent parties to the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in the Maharashtra election.

The flip underlines the impact of the Sena and NCP split - in 2022 and again, almost exactly a year later - on the Maha Vikas Aghadi's fortunes. Sans those 70-odd seats, it cannot counter a BJP that has dominated today, and is en route to its highest ever score in a Maharastra election.

At 12.30 pm the BJP was leading in 124 of the Maharashtra Assembly's 288 seats. The saffron party is likely to need the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP's seats to cross the majority mark of 145.

But it is the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP that will put its larger ally out of reach of the MVA.

The MVA - decimated after claiming victory in the April-June federal election, in which it won 30 of the state's 48 Lok Sabha seats - had only 53 to its name.

The Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar's likely tally of 93 seats is almost exactly the amount the MVA needs to edge in front of the BJP's record tally and win this election.

Where did those 93 seats come from?

Only a small chunk - around 14 - comes from seats are those contested by other parties, mostly the BJP or Congress, in 2019 and given to the Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar this time.

The rest have been flipped from their parent parties, and this, potentially, is one of the areas where the Maha Vikas Aghadi lost this election.

The Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP contested 81 and 59 seats in this election, and they are leading in 57 and 37 seats, respectively.

On the other side, Thackeray's Sena contested 95 seats but is leading only in 18, and Sharad Pawar's NCP contested 86 seats but is leading only in 13.

Of the Shinde Sena's 57 leads, at least 40 are seats won by the undivided Sena in the 2019 election. Similarly, of Ajit Pawar's NCP's 37 leads, a staggering 32 were won by Sharad Pawar's NCP.

Had the Sena and NCP not split, it would have handed the MVA at least 70 more seats.

These would not, perhaps, have been enough for the Maha Vikas Aghadi to win this election, but it would certainly have been enough to push the BJP to a much closer finish.