Opinion: Delhi Elections: It's The Season Of Swing Voters

As the election season concludes in 2024, a high-stakes battle for Delhi is set to unfold in February 2025. Delhi stands out as a unique state, characterised by a sharp split-voting pattern: it votes for the BJP in Lok Sabha elections and the AAP in the assembly polls.

Following recent victories in Haryana and Maharashtra, the BJP is gearing up to challenge the AAP's dominance in Delhi. The party is banking on its 'double-engine' model to appeal to voters, leveraging the promise of aligned governance while capitalising on anti-incumbency against the AAP government. The AAP, however, is relying on its track record of development and the leadership of Arvind Kejriwal to secure a historic third consecutive term.

The AAP hopes its free bijli-paani (electricity-water) schemes, along with improvements in education and healthcare for the underprivileged, will help it clinch another victory. The party is also banking on sympathy for Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and other leaders, claiming they were targeted in politically motivated cases. The AAP has also accused the central government of obstructing Delhi's development plans, arguing that such actions undermine the people's mandate.

Split Verdicts In Delhi

Delhi's electoral history is marked by extreme outcomes. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won all seven seats, leading in 60 of the 70 assembly segments, while AAP led in just 10. The situation changed completely in the 2015 assembly polls. The AAP swept the state, winning 67 seats, leaving the BJP with only three. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP again claimed all seven seats, leading in 65 assembly segments, while Congress led in five and AAP was reduced to zero. The verdict in the 2020 assembly polls was a picture in contrast. The AAP staged another landslide, winning 62 seats, with BJP securing just eight. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP secured 46%, the AAP 33%, and the Congress 15% votes. The AAP's vote share soared to 54% (+21 percentage point) a year later while BJP's dropped to 32% (-14 percentage point).

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's vote share climbed to 57% (+25 percentage points from 2015), AAP's plummeted to 18% (-36 percentage points), and Congress rebounded slightly to 23% (+13 percentage points). The AAP regained its dominance with 54% vote share (+36 percentage points) in the 2020 assembly polls, while the BJP fell to 39% (-18 percentage points).

BJP Swept 2024 Lok Sabha Elections

In 2024, the INDIA bloc, comprising the AAP and the Congress, aimed to challenge the BJP. However, despite Kejriwal's high-profile arrest in the "Liquorgate" case and subsequent release on bail just before the elections, the BJP swept all seven seats for the third consecutive time. The BJP led in 52 assembly segments, while the INDIA bloc led in 18 (AAP in 10, Congress in eight). The BJP secured 54% (+15 percentage points from 2020) votes, and the AAP dropped to 24% (-30 percentage points).

Over the past decade, Delhi has exhibited a clear swing-voting trend: voters favour the BJP in general elections and the AAP in state elections. These verdicts are starkly polarised, with the AAP failing to win a single Lok Sabha seat and the BJP unable to secure even 10 assembly seats.

Approximately 30% of voters in Delhi alternate their support: 15% each between the BJP and Congress in general elections and 30% for the AAP in state polls. These swing voters, not ideologically committed to any party, make their decisions based on the type of election.

For the BJP, retaining the 15% swing voters who shift to AAP in state elections is critical. Equally important is ensuring that Congress, contesting independently this time, retains its Lok Sabha vote share. The voting bases of Congress and AAP largely overlap, consisting of the poor, lower socio-economic groups, Scheduled Castes, and minorities.

The Congress, which once commanded a 45% vote share in state elections, has seen its support erode to 5%, with most of its voters migrating to the AAP. The BJP's swing voters include Purvanchalis and segments of the middle class who back the BJP in general elections for its development agenda and the “Modi factor” but lack ideological loyalty.

The BJP, buoyed by its successes in Haryana and Maharashtra, appears to be focusing on a hyper-local, seat-by-seat strategy. This approach aims to exploit anti-incumbency against AAP MLAs, many of whom are serving their second or third terms. Conversely, the AAP is expected to run a presidential-style campaign, with Kejriwal as its centrepiece, framing the election as a “Kejriwal versus who” contest to capitalise on his popularity.

Delhi is gearing up for a high-stakes electoral battle. While the AAP and the BJP dominate the narrative, the Congress is also eyeing an opportunity to regain lost ground. With the capital's swing voters in play, the 2025 Delhi elections may turn out to be a thrilling political contest.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author