Opinion: Don't Take Voters For Granted: What Parties Must Learn From Year 2024

This year has been a roller coaster ride for political parties in India. In addition to the general elections, eight state elections were held, with honours shared between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)/National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Congress/INDIA bloc. The NDA gained a boost to its ‘Mission 400' before the general election with the joining of Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu, and Jayant Chaudhary. The opposition, however, delivered a blow to the BJP, preventing it from crossing the 300-mark, while the Congress improved its performance to nearly 100 Lok Sabha seats.

In subsequent state elections, while the INDIA bloc won in Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand, the BJP-led coalitions made a comeback to win Haryana and Maharashtra. Despite the seeming weakening of the BJP, the party made a strong comeback, with the opposition losing some of the gains it had made in the Lok Sabha election. Additionally, cracks began to appear within the INDIA bloc, as parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) took independent stands on issues such as the Sambhal riots and the Bangladesh violence in Parliament, while Congress continued to focus other issues.

A Timeline Of Key Political Events

• Jan 2024: Nitish Kumar, the architect of the INDIA bloc, makes a comeback to the NDA
• Mar 2024: TDP and RLD join the NDA
• Jun 2024: In a shocking result, the BJP, which had coined the slogan "char sau paar" (Mission 400), could not even secure a simple majority, with the NDA failing to touch 300 seats
• Jun 2024: BJP ends the 25-year tenure of Naveen Patnaik's BJD in Odisha while retaining Arunachal. The TDP, in alliance with JSP and BJP, registers a big victory in Andhra Pradesh
• Oct 2024: BJP hands Congress a shocking defeat in Haryana. The National Conference-Congress alliance wins the J&K elections
• Nov 2024: BJP-led Mahayuti wins a thumping majority in Maharashtra, making a strong comeback after the loss to the MVA in the Lok Sabha elections. The JMM-led INDIA bloc wins a 2/3 majority in Jharkhand, riding on tribal asmita (pride) and the Maiyya Samman Yojana.

What are the lessons for political parties from 2024?

No Room For Complacency

Parties cannot afford to be complacent. The BJP suffered from overconfidence during the Lok Sabha election when it launched Mission 400. This sent the wrong message to voters, supporters, and cadres, leading them to believe that the BJP would come to power regardless of their votes. As a result, voter turnout in strong booths and among anchor segments decreased. Similarly, the Congress party in Haryana, confident of victory due to its performance in the general elections and the support of key cohort groups such as farmers, women wrestlers, and youth, lost to the BJP's mighty machinery. The MVA, after winning 30 out of 48 seats in the Lok Sabha, also grew overconfident, assuming the vote was a rejection of the BJP's brand of politics. MVA leaders mistakenly took the mandate as a vote against the betrayal of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. However, the Mahayuti made a course-correction, with Eknath and Ajit emerging as the real Sena and NCP leaders, respectively.

Women Are The Kingmakers

The often-overlooked woman voter is emerging as the kingmaker in elections. Increasing awareness and literacy levels have empowered women to make independent voting decisions, and they are turning out to vote in higher numbers. To woo this critical voter segment, parties have introduced women-centric schemes, such as cash income support (Laadli Laxmi, Laadki Bahin, Maiyya Samman Yojana, Gruhalakshmi), free or subsidised gas cylinders, free transport in state buses, and microloans for entrepreneurship. The Mahayuti's victory in Maharashtra and the INDIA bloc's win in Jharkhand can be attributed to cash income support schemes for women.

Don't Take Voters For Granted

Voters are always ahead of all of us—journalists, stringers, experts, analysts, pollsters, workers, and leaders. It is becoming increasingly difficult to read their minds. Most of these groups failed to anticipate the voter sentiment in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in 2023, and in Odisha, Haryana, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Jharkhand in 2024.

An interplay of factors such as caste, class, cohort, beneficiary status, local and national issues, likes and dislikes, anti-incumbency, leadership, candidates, party symbols, cash distribution, and many others, determines voter behaviour.

End Of Presidential-Style Elections?

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP lost 63 seats compared to 2019 (303 vs 240), despite Narendra Modi topping popularity charts, being the best Prime Ministerial candidate by far against his nearest competitor Rahul Gandhi, and high levels of satisfaction with his government's performance

However, even the Lok Sabha elections became localised in states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan, denting BJP's prospects. Only 10% of people voted based on the Prime Ministerial candidate versus 17% in 2019. Only a quarter of BJP voters cited Modi as their reason for voting, down from one-third in 2019.

Emergence Of Hyper-Local Contests

This year's elections, especially the state elections, have been increasingly characterised by hyper-local contests, where local issues dominate. Many factors, including anti-incumbency against local MLAs, caste dynamics, development work by MLAs, rebel candidates, dummy candidates, influencers, vote-cutters, resources, star campaigners, inter-party rivalries, sabotage, betrayal, and cash/liquor distribution, play key roles. In such a scenario, MLAs with strong organisational networks or parties with robust structures tend to have an advantage.

Dominant Caste Losing Relevance

The dominant castes in Haryana and Maharashtra—the Jats and the Marathas—who had been at odds with the BJP governments in these states, were unable to unseat them from power. The BJP has been successful in neutralising the impact. It has pitted non-Yadavs against Yadavs (the most influential OBC group) and non-Jatavs against Jatavs in Uttar Pradesh and other Hindi-belt states.

In Haryana, the BJP managed to make the contest a Jat-versus-non-Jat battle to some extent. In Maharashtra, the Maratha agitation lost its appeal in this election, and the community also faced significant counter-consolidation from OBCs, leading to Mahayuti's victory even in the Marathwada region.

Return Of Pro-Incumbency Era

The results suggest that we may be entering an era of pro-incumbency, where governments retain power most of the time due to effective governance and lack of a viable opposition. The NDA returned to power at the centre, albeit with a smaller majority, while the BJP retained Arunachal and the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) kept power in Sikkim. The BJP won Haryana for a record third time, and Mahayuti and the INDIA bloc retained power in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, respectively. Out of the eight elections held this year (excluding Jammu & Kashmir), incumbents retained power in six, with a 75% strike rate. Only in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha did incumbent governments lose.

Organisation Matters, Social Media Is Just Noise

A strong organisation is the backbone of any political party. The BJP undoubtedly has a stronger organisation compared to the Congress, thanks to the support of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). After setbacks in the general election, the RSS and its sister organisations held thousands of meetings in Haryana and Maharashtra to seek support for the BJP. The Congress, whose organisation has weakened over the last decade, failed to bolster it after its surprise performance in the Lok Sabha elections.

You need feet on the ground to carry out the party's manifesto promises, gather public feedback, mobilise voters, and ensure high turnout on polling day. On this front, the BJP outperforms the Congress. While regional parties like the ones in Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand have the organisational muscle to match the BJP, the Congress is encircled by an ecosystem of YouTubers and sycophants who portray a rosy picture, with little understanding of ground realities.

It's Not Just About Issues, Stupid!

Issues tend to dominate media discussions and TV debates, but while issues are important, they aren't the only factor in voting decisions. Inflation, unemployment, corruption, agricultural and rural distress, and lack of development are major issues across elections. For voters who prioritise issues, the key questions are, which party has a better track record in handling these challenges, and which is better positioned to solve them?

For many voters, leadership, candidates, party symbols, caste, class, beneficiary status, loyalty, and relationships play a more significant role. Unemployment is a major issue, but for a section of the youth, issues like Hindutva or leadership may matter more.

Bread-And-Butter Concerns Matter

When discussing issues, bread-and-butter issues matter more to voters than rhetorical ones. For the Congress, the Rafale issue didn't resonate with voters in 2019, and now Rahul Gandhi's focus on the Adani issue is losing traction. Rahul didn't raise enough issues related to farmer suicides, price rise, or unemployment in Maharashtra. Similarly, local leadership, preoccupied with ticket wrangling and alliances, failed to address pressing issues on the ground.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author