South Africa’s fuel supply safe – for now

South Africans have been reassured that the country is not facing an immediate risk of fuel shortages, despite rising global oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting international markets.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources said it remains in constant communication with oil companies operating in the country to ensure the stability and security of fuel supply.

“While prolonged geopolitical tensions may exert pressure on international oil prices, the department wishes to assure the public that there is currently no immediate risk of fuel shortages in South Africa,” it said.

Fuel supply stable for now

The department said South Africa’s fuel system is currently supported by two operational crude oil refineries, NATREF and Astron Energy, as well as Sasol’s Secunda coal-to-liquids plant, which plays a critical role in domestic fuel production.

These facilities rely on imported crude oil, sourced mainly from West Africa and other African suppliers.

Although the Astron Energy refinery is currently undergoing planned maintenance, the company has already secured enough fuel imports to maintain supply during the shutdown.

Crude reserves secure until May

Officials say the country’s crude oil supply remains stable for the coming months.

Deputy director-general for mineral and petroleum regulation Tseliso Maqubela said companies had already secured shipments before tensions escalated.

“We’re sitting pretty well at the moment in terms of crude oil reserves because companies that operate refineries in South Africa already had vessels sailing towards South Africa,” he said.

“I must indicate that, insofar as crude oil, we think we’re good until May at least, and we hope by then this conflict will be over.”

South Africa has also diversified its crude oil suppliers, with Nigeria currently the biggest supplier, alongside newer sources such as Brazil and the United States.

Global conflict still a concern

Despite the stable supply outlook, experts warn that global tensions could still drive fuel prices higher.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources said rising international crude prices are likely to push fuel prices up from April 2026.

Automobile Association CEO Bobby Ramagwede said motorists should remain cautious but avoid panic.

“Be concerned at the moment, but let’s not panic just yet,” he said.

Ramagwede explained that the impact on fuel prices will largely depend on how long the conflict continues.

“I like to liken it to driving a car with a limited amount of fuel. The faster you drive, the faster you burn fuel. But if you plan correctly, you can still arrive at your destination by adjusting how quickly you drive.”

If the conflict persists for a prolonged period, Ramagwede believes the government may need to consider adjusting fuel levies to provide relief for motorists.

From 1 April 2026, the general fuel levy will increase by 9 cents per litre for petrol and 8 cents for diesel, while the Road Accident Fund levy will increase by 7 cents per litre for both fuel types.

However, Maqubela said reducing these levies would be difficult because the revenue is already included in the national budget approved by Parliament.

“So, if there’s a change there, that revenue that had been pencilled in effectively has to be covered somewhere,” he said.

For now, officials say the main concern is rising fuel prices rather than supply shortages, as South Africa continues to monitor developments in global oil markets.