Latest fuel price forecast: Sky-high oil price hurts chances of a CUT

Surging global oil prices have significantly reduced the fuel price cuts that were mere weeks ago forecast for South Africa’s motorists in early February 2026.

According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the retail prices of unleaded petrol are now expected to decrease by 66 cents per litre for 95 octane and 64 cents per litre for 93 octane.

This marks a sharp revision from earlier expectations of reductions of around 90 cents and 85 cents, respectively, around mid-January.

Diesel relief also scaled back

Meanwhile, the diesel price relief has also been scaled back.

The expected reduction in the wholesale price of 50ppm diesel has dropped from 120 cents to 60 cents per litre, while the anticipated cut for 500ppm diesel has narrowed from 109 cents to 53 cents per litre.

The shift has largely been driven by rising international crude oil prices over the past two weeks.

Brent crude traded at approximately $64.67 per barrel on 13 January, but increased to $69.50 per barrel at the time of publishing.

Geopolitical tensions have played a key role in pushing oil prices higher.

The United States recently deployed warships to Iran following the Iranian government’s suppression of weeks-long protests.

US President Donald Trump has also threatened to impose additional 25% import tariffs on countries trading with Iran.

Rand has strengthened

However, on the upside, the rand has continued to strengthen against the dollar, which is the currency most of the world’s oil and refined petroleum is traded in.

On 1 January 2026, the rand/dollar exchange rate stood at R16.55/$. However, as of 29 January, it’s now at R15.70/$.

Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – a decrease of 64 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and a decrease of 66 cents for 95 users is anticipated.

Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 53 and 60 cents per litre decrease.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 55 cents in price.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $69.50 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R15.70/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 3 February.

The current January 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):