Myanmar power output dims by one-third under junta rule

Read a version of this story in Burmese.

Blackouts have become common across Myanmar, where electricity generation has plunged by at least a third since the 2021 coup d'état -- a drop that analysts say due to economic mismanagement.

Maximum electricity generation has fallen from 3,589 megawatts per day in November 2021, nine months after the military seized power on Feb. 1, 2021, to 2,376 MW per day in November 2024, data from the junta’s Ministry of Electric Power showed.

Regular power supply is now available only in the capital Naypyidaw -- the center of power for the military regime -- while other areas, including the commercial capital Yangon experience severe shortages, residents say.

The declines are due to poor management, as well as an inadequate budget for the electricity sector, said Soe Thura Htun, the minister of electricity and energy for the shadow National Unity Government, or NUG, made up of former civilian leaders in exile or hiding.

He predicted that without addressing the problems, electricity generation will keep declining.

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He also noted that the junta has allocated much of the country’s state revenue to purchasing military equipment, which it is using to fight its own citizens in the civil war that erupted after the coup.

Production falls far short

In January 2023, junta chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing told a meeting of junta officials in Naypyidaw that his regime was working to produce enough electricity for the nation’s needs by 2025, but meeting that target appears unlikely with only a month to go until the new year.

Myanmar’s current electricity demand is about 5,500 MW per day, but the current maximum capacity of generation is only around 2,800 megawatts per day -- accounting for slightly more than 50% of the country’s total needs, according to the Ministry of Electric Power.

However, the country’s total power generation currently meets less than half of demand, said an observer of the energy sector who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke to RFA on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

“The calculation of 50% will vary across different regions of the country and applies only to specific areas under [junta] control,” he said. “However, grassroots communities are still experiencing severe electricity shortages, and for those areas the actual power supply will likely be much lower than 50%.”

The observer also estimated that the country’s power supply will “remain insufficient” next year because of the withdrawal of foreign companies invested in the energy sector amid Myanmar’s civil war and armed conflicts in areas of electricity generation.

In May, the junta’s Ministry of Electric Power claimed that the grid could not supply electricity regularly or sufficiently due to decreases in production capacity of the country’s hydropower and natural gas-fired plants, as well as the destruction of power transmission lines.

A total of 29 hydropower plants, 27 gas-fired plants, two coal-fired plants, and six solar-power plants are responsible for generating electricity for the entire country.

Inconsistent supply

Meanwhile, even industrial zones in Yangon can only expect four hours of electricity each day.

A businessperson in the city who also declined to be named said that factories require eight hours of electricity per day to operate effectively.

“The current power supply is insufficient for adequate factory operations, so we rely on our own small power generators,” he said.

Similarly, electricity is only available for four hours at a time in all of Yangon region’s townships, according to residents.

And yet electricity bills have more than doubled since Sept. 1.

In Mandalay region, home to Myanmar’s second city, electricity is supplied on an “alternating schedule,” but the population can neither access it consistently or on time, a resident told RFA.

“Authorities have scheduled power distribution on a rotation of four hours on and eight hours off, however, we rarely get the full four hours,” he said. “There is no consistent electricity supply at night, as power is distributed to different areas of the town on a rotating basis.”

A resident of the city of Bogale noted that electricity isn’t even available on a rotating basis in Ayeyarwady region, and people there have to rely on other power sources to meet their needs.

“Those who can afford it purchase solar panels,” he said. “Those with limited means rely on batteries or motorcycle batteries, while those who cannot afford either use candles.”

Attempts by RFA to contact the Yangon Electricity Supply Corporation for comment on the region’s lack of regular electricity went unanswered by the time of publishing.

Translated by Aung Naing. Edited by Joshua Lipes and Malcolm Foster.