Diesel price hike inches towards R8 a litre – OUCH

South African motorists face a difficult month, with the latest indicators pointing to a sharp increase in fuel prices in April.

According to the Central Energy Fund (CEF), mid-month data shows significant under-recoveries in the current fuel price cycle – a key signal that price hikes may be on the way.

As of 17 March, petrol is showing an under-recovery of up to R4.74 per litre, while diesel is even deeper in the red at around R7.83 per litre.

Middle East tensions drive oil spike

The surge is largely being driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

The conflict, which intensified in late February, has unsettled global energy markets and raised fears of supply disruptions – particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoints.

Ongoing attacks on commercial shipping in the region have further heightened concerns, pushing the price of Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel, after earlier spiking close to $120.

This represents a dramatic rise from below $60 per barrel earlier this year.

What it means for South Africans

For South Africa, which imports a large share of its fuel, rising global oil prices typically translate into higher costs at the pumps.

If current trends persist, motorists could face significant increases in both petrol and diesel prices in April, adding further strain to already tight household budgets.

Fuel price adjustments in the country are influenced by several factors, including:

• International oil prices
• The rand-dollar exchange rate
• Government taxes and levies

While the pricing cycle is still at an early stage, the current data paints a concerning picture for consumers.

The final price adjustments will ultimately depend on how global oil markets and the rand perform in the coming weeks – but for now, the outlook suggests more pressure ahead for motorists.

Latest forecast

Below, the latest projections as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 427 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 474 cents for 95 users is anticipated.

Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 773 and 783 cents per litre increase.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 979 cents in price.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $102.51 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.65/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on either Tuesday, 31 March or Tuesday, 7 April (TBC).

The March 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):