Opinion: Iran Is Embattled. But It's Still Winning The Ideological War

Cafes in bustling Central London are always full of tourists, of which many moneyed ones come from the Arab world. Once, I found myself deep in conversation with a young Saudi architect, who, in a moment of rare candour, shared his thoughts on what he termed the "slaughtering of Gazans" over the past year.

"We are in distress," he sighed. "We young Saudis can see Gaza being flattened, but my country stays silent." These are brave words from a Saudi, no doubt on foreign land. But then, it's a country where the closest thing to freedom of speech is the freedom to agree with the monarch.

But what really made the conversation interesting was his view on Iran's missile strike against Israel on October 1. "Iran is the only country standing up to Israel and America," he said in admiration and relief. A Sunni Saudi praising a Shiite Iran is like an Iranian praising Israel. It should give Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a sleepless night.

Two weeks ago, an avalanche of missiles rained down over Israeli skies, causing limited damage but sending shockwaves through the Muslim world. From Jakarta to Jenin, the celebrations were will -  people cheering as though it was Israel's final defeat. Screams, slogans, sheer disbelief. Never mind that Israel's inevitable retaliation, which is yet to come, could be even more spectacularly deadly. For them, the mere fact that someone - anyone - had dared to defy Israel was enough. Forget logic. This was emotional catharsis at its peak.

It is not surprising then that Tehran's defiance against Israel and the US is making the Islamic Republic more popular across both the wider Shiite and Sunni communities. It is important to recall the 2006 Lebanese war, when Iran's active support to Hezbollah against Israel generated a surge in support for Iran across the Muslim world.

Iran's Soft Power

"The Iranian people's revolution is just the beginning of the revolution for the entire Islamic world." Those were the words of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the man who kickstarted the 1979 Iranian Revolution and essentially declared his intention to export Iran's brand of Islamic revival far and wide.

While policymakers and analysts in the West tend to fixate on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its well-trained armed militias, they are really just scratching the surface. Sure, the IRGC's militia network packs a punch, but that's only one part of Iran's influence. The real thing happens behind the scenes, where Iran has built a whole soft-power empire across West Asia - and beyond -thanks to its soft-power agencies. Under Iran's current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has continued with its policy of exporting its revolution. In fact, the export of its ideology is enshrined in its Constitution implemented after the 1979 revolution.

What Iran cannot do militarily to Israel, it's doing with its soft power. It has encircled the Jewish state with a web of entities deeply influenced by its ideology. It has cloned its ideology in Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Its ideological fingerprints are all over Syria and Iraq too. Additionally, Tehran's influence is creeping into parts of the Gulf, Bahrain, with a Shia majority country, being a notable example. It's also trying to make inroads into Afghanistan and even in places like the Palestinian territories.  

And if you are looking for where else Iran's revolution is spreading much beyond its boundaries, just visit the Shia majority Kargil in Kashmir. The life-size cutout of Khamenei outside a Shia mosque in the main town says it all.

By 2009, right in the middle of US and UN sanctions, Iran had completed around several hundred development projects in southern Lebanon - schools, religious centres, sports complexes, hospitals-you name it. And all of them conveniently spread Tehran's Islamic ideology. 

The question is, why does Iran support Hamas and, more generally, all Palestinians, even though they are Sunni who have not accepted its Shia revolution? The answer is simple. The clerical regime asserts it is its Islamic duty to be the defender of what it believes is the oppressed people. To support the oppressed and oppose the oppressor is at the core of the Shia doctrine.

Shiite Doctrine Of Sacrifice

From the early years of Islam, the followers were divided into Sunni and Shia sects. The former enjoys the majority and the latter's population is restricted to West Asia, Pakistan and India. Persia had a vibrant ancient culture. After embracing Shia Islam, the Persian pride in culture remains strong in Iran.

Urdu poet Allama Iqbal has summed up the spirit of Shiite martyrdom in this couplet: "Islam zinda hota hai, har karbala ke baad" (Islam is revived after every Karbala-like tragedy). The Shiite spirit of martyrdom is deeply rooted in the tragedy of Karbala, where Imam Hussain, the grandson of Prophet Muhammad, and his followers, were brutally killed in their stand against tyranny. This sacrifice is seen not just as a historical event but as a timeless symbol of resistance, justice, and self-sacrifice for a higher cause. In Shiite belief, martyrdom is the ultimate act of devotion and defiance against oppression, which has been encapsulated in the Islamic Republic of Iran's ideology.

Therefore, US sanctions or Israeli attacks on its infrastructure only hardens a Shiite's resolve to resist and defy. Take, for example, how over the last four years, the Israeli campaign against Iran that includes sabotage and attacks on nuclear and military facilities within Iran, assassinations of nuclear scientists and decorated military officers on Iranian soil and even elsewhere in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and other locations, have failed to deter Iran or Hezbollah from harming the Israeli cause.

Israel may launch an attack on Iran and destroy its oil fields or other infrastructure in retaliation to the October 1 attack, but it is quite possible it will only firm up the Shiite resolve to launch further attacks on Israel. It might become a never-ending cycle of violence 

The Competition To Win Over Muslims

Much before the Islamic Republic of Iran began exporting its ideology, it was Saudi Arabia that was engaged in winning the hearts and minds of the Muslim world. The export of Wahhabism gained momentum during King Faisal's reign (1964-1975) and continued under subsequent monarchs. Its primary objective was to promote Wahhabism, support Muslim communities worldwide and counter Shia and Iranian influence. "The Wahhabi Mission and Saudi Arabia" by David Commins encapsulates the rise of Wahhabi ideology quite well. Wahhabism took an extreme form in some societies, which gave birth to entities such as the Taliban and Al Qaeda. There was no surprise in the fact that out of the 19 hijackers of planes in the 9/11 terror attack, 15 were Saudi nationals.

It is ironic then that the US would continue to nurture monarchs in Saudi Arabia. Of course, there is no denying that in recent years, Saudi Arabia has attempted to rebrand itself as a force against extremism, introducing reforms under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's "Vision 2030". However, critics argue that these reforms are superficial and the underlying Wahhabi ideology remains intact.

Saudi Influence Wanes

Saudi Arabia was on the brink of signing the Abraham Accord with Israel before the deadly attack by Hamas on October 7 last year. Many in Muslim societies complain that Saudis appear to be doing nothing for the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. On the contrary, it is being accused of cold-shouldering the Palestinian issue. Clearly, with Iran positioned to take on powerful forces like Israel and America, Saudi Arabia loses the battle of winning the hearts and minds of Muslims.

But West Asia is a complex region. Arabs, Turks and Persians are the largest ethnic or linguistic groups there. Together, they make up 90% of the region's population. The Arab population is divided into over 20 countries. Turks and Iranians largely live in Turkey and Iran, respectively. Much of the current Arab countries and the land where Israel stands today were until the First World War part of the Ottoman Empire. So, Turkish influence in the region cannot be ignored. Turkey Muslims practise Sunni Islam but they are more moderate compared to the Saudi brand of Islam. Modern Turkey, under President Erdogan, is engaged in spreading its cultural and political influences across the Muslim world.

Iran Is Far From Isolated 

It is widely believed that due to sanctions imposed by the US since 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran stands isolated. The sanctions have no doubt hugely impacted its economy, but the country has still managed to create a huge missile production industry and manufacture the most modern drones. Iran has not only built its axis of resistance in Hezbollah and the Houthis, but it has also nurtured good diplomatic ties with key regional players, such as Turkey, Iraq, Syria, Qatar and, more recently, even with Saudi Arabia. In the last two years, it has become part of geopolitically important multilateral fora, such as BRICS and SCO. The strong anti-US sentiments have brought Iran and Russia much closer together, which is indeed a big deal for Iran. 

The US once had an excellent relationship with Iran, after it helped depose an elected Prime Minister and install a monarch in 1953. It continued to support the oppressive regime of the Pahlavi monarchy until the 1979 Islamic revolution replaced the tyrant administration. In a way, the US is indirectly responsible for the Islamic revolution and oppressed Iranians under the monarchy finding refuge in the Shiite faith. True to its habit, the US has often supported dictators and anti-democracy leaders in West Asia. Military dictatorships in Egypt and the monarchs in Saudi Arabia and Jordan continue to depend on the US security umbrella. Maybe there is a need for a West Asia policy reset. But then there are hawks in the US Congress and inside Israel for whom any rapprochement with Iran will be tantamount to blasphemy.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author