Xi meets Putin at BRICS summit in Russia

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met with his counterpart Vladimir Putin in the Russian city of Kazan on Tuesday on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS summit of developing economies amid mounting concern about Chinese and North Korean involvement in the Ukraine war.

State news agency Xinhua and state broadcaster CGTN both published brief reports on the meeting, but further details have yet to emerge.

The visit is Xi's second to Russia since Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and comes amid international criticism of China's support for Putin's war effort. Putin also visited China in October 2023 and May 2024.

"This meeting is the first held after the BRICS expansion and has attracted wide attention from the international community," Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters in Beijing on Tuesday. Xi would "have in-depth exchanges with leaders of various countries on the current international situation.”

The BRICS forum initially grouped Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but has expanded to include emerging economies that China hopes will challenge the U.S.-led economic order. 

Representatives of 33 nations will converge on Kazan, about 900 kilometers (550 miles) west of Moscow, for the Oct. 22-24 summit. Xi plans to meet with India’s Narendra Modi, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

"China is willing to work with all parties to ... usher in a new era of joint self-reliance in the Global South, and jointly promote world peace and development," Mao said.

US sanctions

The U.S. Treasury last week announced sanctions on Chinese companies for alleged involvement in making drones used by Russia in Ukraine.

China has repeatedly denied allegations that it supplies Russia with weapons. Yet Beijing exports more than US$300 million worth of dual-use items – those with both commercial and military applications – to Russia every month, according to the U.S.-based think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which says the items could be used to build drones and tanks.

Mao told a regular news briefing that the sanctions were "illegal," and that Beijing would never accept such "groundless accusations." 

"China has never provided lethal weapons to any party in the Russia-Ukraine conflict," she said. 

Xi has made few overseas trips since the ending of pandemic restrictions in 2022, making this trip a politically weighty one for Beijing, said Wang Weizheng, professor of political science at Adelphi University, on New York’s Long Island.

"This is only Xi's third visit abroad since pandemic restrictions ended, and he chooses where he visits very carefully each time," Wang said. "The main purpose is of course to further consolidate Sino-Russian ties, and the secondary purpose is to switch to annual BRICS summits."

Countering the US

BRICS was originally conceived by China in partnership with India, but the bloc is now increasingly led by China, which is keen to expand its membership.

"China wants to bring in countries that aren't aligned with the United States and Western polities via the BRICS mechanism, and turn it into an alternative and confrontational structure," Wang said, adding that Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have all expressed an interest in joining.

He said China is using a similar strategy with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which focuses on regional security, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

The Ukraine war will likely be a headline topic at the Xi-Putin summit, according to Ye Yaoyuan, a professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas.

"The key issue is of course dealing with Russia's current situation, stuck as it is in the quagmire of the Russia-Ukraine war," Ye told RFA Mandarin in a recent interview. "The issue Putin most wants to negotiate is to what extent China can provide assistance."

North Korean troops

Meanwhile, reports are emerging that Russia is forming a special battalion consisting of up to 3,000 North Korean soldiers to help push Ukraine’s forces out of Kursk amid a manpower shortage due to heavy casualties.

The North Koreans will form part of the “Special Buryat Battalion,” organized within the 11th separate airborne assault brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, Ukraine's The Kyiv Post reported, citing sources in Ukraine’s Military Intelligence.

The battalion is expected to include up to 3,000 North Korean troops and is currently being supplied with small arms and ammunition, the newspaper reported, adding that it may be deployed near Sudzha and Kursk, close to the Ukrainian border.

Sun Kuo-hsiang, director of the Asia-Pacific Institute at Taiwan's Nanhua University, said China and Russia may also discuss promoting de-dollarization and promoting alternate currency payment systems.

"They may talk about how to further break away from the US dollar-dominated international financial system, promote settlements in local currencies, ... to reduce dependence on Western financial institutions."

"They may also discuss strategies against Western sanctions, coping with the influence of NATO, and coordination and cooperation in international multilateral organizations, as well as how to work together on the Ukraine conflict and on Taiwan."

Last week, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service released detailed satellite images it said showed a first deployment, saying it estimated the North could send around 12,000 soldiers being transported on a Russian naval transport vessel between Oct. 8 and 13.

‘Russia needs China’

Ye said Putin's growing international isolation tips the balance of power in China's favor at the BRICS leadership summit.

"Russia needs China far more than China needs Russia right now," he said. "So China has more bargaining chips at the negotiating table."

He said Beijing could consider the loss of international markets via sanctions, and hold off on providing further aid to Putin.

North Korea and Russia have moved noticeably closer over the past year or more amid widespread suspicion that North Korea has supplied conventional weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine in return for military and economic assistance. 

If confirmed, the move would be a rare foray by the long-isolated and nuclear-armed North into a foreign conflict.

South Korea has said it will take “phased measures” against North Korea and Russia over their deepening military cooperation, urging the North to immediately withdraw its troops from Russia.

Ye said China was unlikely to intervene over North Korean involvement, however.

"China is unlikely to condemn North Korea, and may decide to deal with the matter quietly," Ye said.

Translated by Luisetta Mudie. Edited by Malcolm Foster.