China ‘made wrong bet’ on Assad regime in Syria, say analysts

The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria on Dec. 8 will likely hamper Beijing’s diplomatic ambitions in the Middle East and prompt a reevaluation of its support for Iran and Russia in the region, experts told Radio Free Asia in recent interviews.

Back in September 2023, President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and his wife Asma, who made a six-day visit to the country amid great fanfare in the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s state media.

The Assads were Xi’s guests at the opening ceremony of the 19th Asian Games in Hangzhou, which was hailed by the Global Times newspaper as an opportunity to strengthen trade and economic ties with the isolated regime.

China was only the sixth country visited by Assad since the start of the Syrian conflict in 2011, and Beijing saw opportunities for Chinese companies in post-war economic reconstruction as part of Xi’s Belt and Road supply chain and global infrastructure program.

China’s top envoy Wang Yi has pledged to play a key role in bringing peace to troubled global “hotspots,” and has repeatedly sent diplomats to the Middle East in recent years.

Beijing has also called for an end to the “collective punishment” of Palestinian civilians by Israel.

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Beijing likely reevaluating

Chinese diplomats brokered a truce between Fatah, Hamas and other rival Palestinian factions earlier this year, but has yet to succeed in helping to facilitate the emergence of a unity government, despite repeated rounds of diplomatic efforts, Reuters reported.

Its support for Assad, however, was largely based on its view of the Syrian resistance as being instigated by the United States and its allies, and its alignment with Iran and Russia, something that Beijing may now be reevaluating, analysts said.

“Beijing wants to expand its influence in the Middle East, and Syria was an important foothold for it to do that,” U.S.-based current affairs commentator Heng He told RFA Mandarin in a recent interview.

“This is at the very least a huge setback for the Chinese Communist Party’s desire to boost its influence ... by winning allies or supporting certain forces in the Middle East,” he said.

But as Assad and his family arrive in Moscow, where they will reportedly be granted political asylum, China’s bet doesn’t appear to have paid off, according to Hudson Institute researcher Zineb Riboua.

“I think China is realizing that the costs of its of its alignment with Iran and Russia in the Middle East are high because they really relied on Iran to to expand their influence,” Riboua said. “It is by being Iran’s closest friend that China was able to broker a deal, a normalization deal, with Saudi Arabia.”

“It is really by being close to Iran that China was able to say to everyone that it can handle the Yemen question. This is why they try to do some mediation and diplomatic missions in Yemen,” she said.

“But it seems that now that Assad fell, that all that everything that Iran has tried to achieve in terms of influence and also in terms of nourishing its proxies across the Middle East is vanishing.”

She said she expects Beijing to distance itself from Tehran in the future, and adjust its Middle East strategy to reflect Turkey’s status as “a real regional power.”

China seeks to build ties with anti-Western authoritarian and totalitarian regimes including Iran and the Assad regime in Syria, Riboua said.

“I would say that China made the wrong bet, and it’s going to pay a certain price for it,” she said.

Beijing has said it remains open-minded about recognition for a future Syrian government.

“The future and destiny of Syria should be decided by the Syrian people,” foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told journalist on Dec. 9. “We hope that all parties concerned will find a political solution to restore stability and order as soon as possible.”

Social media takes

Meanwhile, social media comments about the issue focused on expectations of Israel’s further expansion into Syria and satirical comments about the failure of China’s foreign policy experts to predict the fall of Assad.

“Hehe, the freedom of the Syrian people is over, for the next few decades at least,” commented @qinyuehanguan1900 from Chongqing. “Israel is far worse than any terrorist.”

“We hereby announce to the world that, from now on, Jerusalem will be our southern capital, Damascus the capital and Tel Aviv our temporary residence,” @pingwaqingsheng from Beijing quoted an imaginary Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as saying.

“Do you all think this is over?” commented @tianyahuiguke from Beijing. “It’s only just getting started.”

Comments also took aim at Li Shaoxian, dean of the China-Arab States Research Institute at Ningxia University, who said in a Dec. 4 interview with Phoenix TV that it was highly unlikely that anti-government forces would succeed in overthrowing the government.

“How embarrassing!” said one comment on the story. “I could be an expert like him,” scoffed another.

Heng said China’s international relations experts are typically hampered by their need to repeat the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s official line on everything, rather than taking a coldly analytical view of international developments.

“Some experts ... basically go along with the Chinese Communist Party line when commenting, rather than analyzing and judging based on the international situation,” he said, adding that many commentators are wary of being accused of bad-mouthing Beijing’s allies.

“These misjudgments are political, based on their political position,” Heng said.

While news coverage of the unfolding situation in Syria was widely available on Chinese social media on Tuesday, not everyone is being allowed to post anything they like about the situation in the Middle East, according to current affairs commentator Ji Feng, who has a background in the pro-democracy movement.

“I [tried to] make a few posts about Assad today on WeChat,” Ji told RFA Mandarin. “Others can post about it, but I can’t.”

He said plenty of people in his circle have opinions about the situation in Syria, which he saw as a displacement of their dissatisfaction with their own government, sentiments that are banned under strict online censorship.

“The Assad issue is definitely an outlet for a lot of people,” he said.

Translated by Luisetta Mudie.